We study the effect of aid volatility on education outcomes and economic growth, in a model that focuses on a low-income economy where acquiring skills benefits from public subsidies partly financed through foreign aid. By creating uncertainty about the net return to education, a high degree of aid volatility mitigates agents’ incentives to invest in skills. If savings and growth depend on the composition of the labor force, aid volatility may have an adverse effect on the mean growth rates of investment and output. Panel data regressions for a group of aid-dependent countries provide robust evidence of a negative relationship between the volatility of education aid and schooling outcomes.

中文翻译：

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援助波动，人力资本和增长

我们在一个针对低收入经济体的模型中研究了援助波动对教育成果和经济增长的影响，在低收入经济体中，获得技能的收益来自部分由外国援助提供资金的公共补贴。通过为净教育收益创造不确定性，高度的援助波动会减轻代理人投资技能的动力。如果储蓄和增长取决于劳动力的构成，那么援助的波动可能会对投资和产出的平均增长率产生不利影响。一组依赖援助国家的面板数据回归提供了有力的证据，表明教育援助的波动性与就学结果之间存在负相关关系。