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The role of local labour market conditions and pupil attainment on post-compulsory schooling decisions
International Journal of Manpower ( IF 3.295 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-04 , DOI: 10.1108/ijm-11-2017-0303
Elena Meschi , Joanna Swaffield , Anna Vignoles

The purpose of this paper is to assess the role of local labour market conditions and pupil educational attainment as primary determinants of the post-compulsory schooling decision.,Through the specification of a nested logit model, the restrictive independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption inherent in the multinomial logit (MNL) model is relaxed across multiple unordered outcomes.,The analysis shows that the factors influencing schooling decisions differ for males and females. For females, on average, the key drivers of the schooling decision are expected wage returns based on youth educational attainment, attitudes to school and parental aspirations, rather than local labour market conditions. For males, higher local unemployment rates encourage greater investment in education.,The contribution of this paper to the existing literature is threefold. First, a nested logit model is proposed as an alternative to a MNL. The former can formally incorporate the structured and sequential decision-making process that youths may engage with in relation to the post-compulsory schooling decision, as well as relaxing the restrictive IIA assumption inherent in the MNL across multiple unordered outcomes, an issue the authors discuss in more detail in the Methodology section below. Second, the analysis is based on extremely rich socio-economic data from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England, matched to local labour market data and administrative data from the National Pupil Database and Pupil Level Annual School Census, which provide a broad set of unusually high-quality measures of prior attainment. The authors argue that such high-quality data and an appropriate model specification allows identification of the determinants of the post-compulsory decision in a more detailed manner than many previous analyses. Third, the data have the scale necessary to consider whether the determinants of post-compulsory schooling decisions vary by gender, a particularly important issue given the differential education participation rates of males and females (e.g. in this cohort, females are about 10 percentage points more likely to go on to higher education in the UK than males), and the gendered choices of occupation (see, e.g. Bertrand, 2011). The work will, therefore, provide recent empirical evidence from England on gender differences in the determinants of education choices.

中文翻译:

当地劳动力市场状况和学生水平在义务教育后决定中的作用

本文的目的是评估当地劳动力市场状况和学生受教育程度是义务教育后学习决定的主要决定因素。通过嵌套logit模型的规范,无关选择的假设的限制性独立性(IIA)假设多项式logit(MNL)模型的固有特性在多个无序结果中得到了放松。分析表明,影响学校教育决策的因素对于男性和女性而言是不同的。对于女性而言,平均而言,决定上学的关键因素是根据青年受教育程度,对学校的态度和父母的期望,而不是当地劳动力市场的状况得出的预期工资回报。对于男性而言,较高的当地失业率鼓励在教育上进行更多的投资。本文对现有文献的贡献是三方面的。首先,提出了嵌套Logit模型作为MNL的替代方案。前者可以正式纳入年轻人可能参与的与义务教育后教育决策相关的结构化和顺序决策过程,以及放宽MNL固有的跨多个无序结果的限制性IIA假设,这是作者讨论的问题在下面的“方法论”部分中有更详细的说明。其次,该分析基于英格兰青年纵向研究中极其丰富的社会经济数据,并与来自全国学生数据库和学生水平年度学校普查的本地劳动力市场数据和行政数据相匹配,这些数据提供了广泛的事先达到异常高品质的衡量标准。作者认为,这种高质量的数据和适当的模型规格可以以比许多以前的分析更为详细的方式来识别强制性决定的决定因素。第三,数据具有必要的规模,可以考虑义务教育后决定的决定因素是否因性别而异,这是一个特别重要的问题,因为男女的入学率不同(例如,在该队列中,女性的入学率要高出约10个百分点)。在英国接受高等教育的人数可能会高于男性),以及性别选择的职业(参见,例如Bertrand,2011年)。因此,这项工作将提供来自英国的最新经验证据,证明教育选择的决定因素中存在性别差异。
更新日期:2019-11-04
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