The purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of the early termination of infrastructure projects implemented under public–private partnerships (PPP), concessions or privately managed divested assets.,Cross-section and duration model estimations were applied to a sample of 2,655 infrastructure projects implemented in Latin America and the Caribbean for the period 1993–2017. Estimation techniques consist of a logistic model and cox proportional hazards model (CPHM) applied to alternative specifications, including diverse causal factors.,Evidence is found that early termination of infrastructure projects is determined by intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Among the intrinsic factors, the main characteristics of projects that increase the likelihood of failure are the size or scale of the project, the sector in which the project is developed (transport and water and sanitation) and being investments in divested assets. Extrinsic factors that showed a negative impact on the risk of early termination are good regulatory quality and domestic macroeconomic stability. Likewise, external real and financial shocks also contribute importantly to explain the likelihood of early termination of infrastructure projects.,The results reveal that particular care must be put in design and supervision of large-scale projects, either in transport or water and sanitation. As well, risks associated with external shocks must be explicitly acknowledged in project design, with appropriate remedies and safeguards. The prevalence of relatively high rates of early termination in projects in divested assets in contrast with PPP suggests the importance of introducing simpler way out mechanisms for concessionaires. Finally, the results show the key importance of institutional factors like regulatory quality in determining project failure on economic performance of infrastructure projects.,In contrast to the previous literature, the analysis shows the decisive role played by financial external factors and institutional factors of Latin American and Caribbean countries in early termination of private participation in infrastructure projects. As well, the finding of a higher likelihood of failure in projects that involve investments in divested assets versus concession or PPP suggests the need of investigate further the tradeoffs regarding the balance that must exist among guarantees offered to investors in infrastructure projects and the need to keep contractual decisions in line with market signals.

中文翻译：

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是什么导致私人参与基础设施项目失败？

本文的目的是评估在公私合营（PPP），特许权或私人管理的剥离资产下实施的基础设施项目的提前终止的决定因素。横截面和工期模型估计应用于2,655个基础设施样本1993-2017年在拉丁美洲和加勒比执行的项目。估算技术包括适用于替代规范（包括各种因果因素）的逻辑模型和考克斯比例风险模型（CPHM）。有证据表明，基础设施项目的提前终止取决于内在和外在因素。在内在因素中，增加失败可能性的项目的主要特征是项目的规模或规模，该项目的开发部门（运输，水和卫生），是对已剥离资产的投资。对早期终止风险产生负面影响的外部因素是良好的监管质量和国内宏观经济稳定性。同样，外部的实际和财务冲击也对解释基础设施项目提前终止的可能性做出了重要贡献。结果表明，在运输，水和卫生设施等大型项目的设计和监督中必须格外小心。同样，必须在项目设计中明确承认与外部冲击有关的风险，并采取适当的补救措施和保护措施。与购买力平价相比，被剥离资产中的项目中提前终止率较高，这表明为特许公司引入更简单的退出机制很重要。最后，结果表明制度因素（如监管质量）对于确定项目失败对基础设施项目的经济绩效至关重要。与以往的文献相比，分析表明拉丁美洲的金融外部因素和制度因素起着决定性作用加勒比国家尽早终止私人参与基础设施项目。还有