The aim of this paper is to predict and minimize the risks of oil, gas and petrochemical projects. Besides, reducing the likelihood of occurrence and minimizing risks impact on the projects to reduce the probable costs and improve the economic situation is another purpose of this paper.,This paper provides a fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) – a technique that assist to solve decision-making problems – and IP (Impact & Probability) table methods to identify and analyze critical risks in energy projects, and then fuzzy Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) in order to predict the probability of each level of risk for more efficient risk management in projects. Furthermore, in this paper, the fuzzy BLR (FBLR) is optimized such that the probability of a high level of risk for the implementation of the project has been minimized using meta-heuristic algorithm.,The results from the point of view of experts show that combination of fuzzy DEMATEL with FBLR approach as well as using SA algorithm, in order to optimize the high level of risks, can provide a smart approach to managing risks with more success.,The application of the proposed method is illustrated via a real data set from energy projects.,We propose combined fuzzy DEMATEL and FBLR methods to predict and optimize the risks of the energy projects, which is the innovation of this paper.

中文翻译：

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模糊DEMATEL-用于评估风险和确定优先级的模糊二元Logistic回归方法和模拟退火优化算法（能源项目的经验研究）

本文的目的是预测和最小化石油，天然气和石化项目的风险。此外，减少发生的可能性和将风险对项目的影响最小化以降低可能的成本并改善经济状况是本文的另一目的。本文提供了一种模糊的决策试验与评估实验室（DEMATEL）–一种技术可以帮助解决决策问题– IP（影响和概率）表方法可以识别和分析能源项目中的关键风险，然后通过模糊二元Logistic回归（BLR）来预测每个风险级别的概率，项目中的有效风险管理。此外，在本文中，