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Reacting to the Lucas Critique
History of Political Economy ( IF 0.511 ) Pub Date : 2019-06-01 , DOI: 10.1215/00182702-7551912
Aurélien Goutsmedt , Erich Pinzón-Fuchs , Matthieu Renault , Francesco Sergi

In 1976, Robert Lucas explicitly criticized Keynesian macroeconometric models for their inability to correctly predict the effects of alternative economic policies. Today, most contemporary macroeconomists and some historians of economics consider that Lucas’s critique led forcefully to an immediate disqualification of the Keynesian macroeconometric approach. This narrative is based on the interpretation of the Lucas critique as a fundamental principle for economic reasoning that was (and still is) logically unquestionable. We consider that this narrative is problematic both in terms of historiography and the effects that it can have in the field as a way of assigning importance and credit to particular macroeconomists. Indeed, the point of view of the Keynesian economists is missing despite the fact that they were the target of Lucas’s paper and that throughout the 1970s and 1980s they produced a fierce reaction against it. In this article we analyze the reactions by a broad set of authors (which we label “Keynesians”) that disputed the relevance of the critique. In spite of their diversity in methodological, theoretical, and policy issues, these reactions were characterized by their common questioning of the empirical and practical relevance of the Lucas critique.

中文翻译:

对卢卡斯批评的反应

1976 年,罗伯特·卢卡斯(Robert Lucas)明确批评凯恩斯主义宏观经济计量模型无法正确预测替代经济政策的影响。今天,大多数当代宏观经济学家和一些经济学史学家认为,卢卡斯的批评有力地导致了凯恩斯宏观经济计量方法的直接取消资格。这种叙述是基于将卢卡斯批判解释为经济推理的基本原则,这在逻辑上是(现在仍然是)逻辑上无可置疑的。我们认为,这种叙述在史学方面以及它在该领域可能产生的影响方面都是有问题的,作为一种将重要性和信用分配给特定宏观经济学家的方式。确实,凯恩斯主义经济学家的观点缺失,尽管他们是卢卡斯论文的目标,并且在整个 1970 和 1980 年代他们对它产生了激烈的反应。在本文中,我们分析了大量作者(我们将其称为“凯恩斯主义者”)对批评的相关性提出异议的反应。尽管它们在方法论、理论和政策问题上各不相同,但这些反应的特点是他们共同质疑卢卡斯批判的经验和实践相关性。
更新日期:2019-06-01
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