Does the involvement of foreign third parties in the management of a country in the wake of a civil war have positive or negative economic effects? The approaches used to address this question in the social and political science literature are mostly qualitative and not sufficiently supported by quantitative evidence. This paper uses a quantitative analysis of the postconflict economic performance of Kosovo and East Timor under international administrations sponsored by the United Nations in the late 1990s. By using the synthetic control impact evaluation technique, we compute suitable counterfactual scenarios for each country to estimate the intervention effects of interest. We find a robust negative effect from the intervention on Kosovo, whereas the effect on East Timor is positive.

中文翻译：

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国际行政机构的经济影响：科索沃和东帝汶的案例

内战后外国第三方参与一个国家的管理是否会产生积极或消极的经济影响？社会和政治科学文献中用来解决这个问题的方法大多是定性的，没有得到定量证据的充分支持。本文对 1990 年代后期在联合国赞助的国际管理下的科索沃和东帝汶冲突后经济表现进行了定量分析。通过使用综合控制影响评估技术，我们为每个国家计算了合适的反事实情景，以估计感兴趣的干预效果。我们发现对科索沃的干预产生了强烈的负面影响，而对东帝汶的影响是积极的。