We study the rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which examines predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We report two key findings: forecasters typically over-react to their individual news, while consensus forecasts under-react to average forecaster news. To reconcile these findings, we combine the diagnostic expectations model of belief formation from Bordalo, Gennaioli, and Shleifer (2018) with Woodford’s (2003) noisy information model of belief dispersion. The forward looking nature of diagnostic expectations yields additional implications, which we also test and confirm. A structural estimation exercise indicates that our model captures important variation in the data, yielding a value for the belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings

中文翻译：

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宏观经济预期过度反应

我们使用Coibion​​和Gorodnichenko（2015）的方法研究宏观经济和金融变量的个人预测和共识性专业预测的合理性，该方法研究了预测修订带来的预测误差的可预测性。我们报告了两个主要发现：预报员通常对各自的新闻反应过度，而共识预报对平均预报员新闻的反应不足。为了调和这些发现，我们将Bordalo，Gennaioli和Shleifer（2018）的信念形成的诊断期望模型与Woodford（2003）的信念分散噪声信息模型相结合。诊断期望的前瞻性产生了其他含义，我们也对此进行了测试和确认。进行结构性估算表明，我们的模型捕获了数据中的重要变化，