We study inflation dynamics in emerging, small open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and find new empirical evidence of the existence of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). Acknowledging specification uncertainty, a comprehensive set of alternative proxies for the NKPC’s components is assessed. Our results indicate the superiority of labor market measures for economic slack, support the use of survey inflation expectations and confirm the NKPC’s open economy version. Further, we investigate the stability of the NKPC over time, performing Bayesian inference in a time-varying parameter stochastic volatility version of the model. The results do not suggest the NKPC to have flattened in CEE challenging recent evidence in advanced economies. Inflationary dynamics have not decoupled from the state of the domestic economy. Therefore, a balanced approach to monetary policy which neither neglects the domestic nor external drivers of inflation and focuses on anchoring inflation expectations is well justified.

我们研究了中欧和东欧新兴开放经济体的通货膨胀动态，并发现了新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线（NKPC）存在的新经验证据。认识到规格不确定性，评估了NKPC组件的全套替代代理。我们的结果表明，劳动力市场措施在经济不景气方面具有优势，支持使用调查的通胀预期，并确认了NKPC的开放经济版本。此外，我们研究了随时间变化的NKPC的稳定性，在模型的时变参数随机波动率版本中执行贝叶斯推断。结果表明，NKPC在中东欧地区表现平平，对发达经济体的最新证据构成挑战。通货膨胀动力并未与国内经济状况脱钩。因此，