In evaluating the appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a key parameter is the rate of substitution between wealth and mortality risk, conventionally summarized as the value per statistical life (VSL). For the United States, VSL is estimated as approximately $10 million, which implies the value of preventing 100,000 COVID-19 deaths is $1 trillion. Is this value too large? There are reasons to think so. First, VSL is a marginal rate of substitution and the potential risk reductions are non-marginal. The standard VSL model implies the rate of substitution of wealth for risk reduction is smaller when the risk reduction is larger, but a closed-form solution calibrated to estimates of the income elasticity of VSL shows the rate of decline is modest until the value of a non-marginal risk reduction accounts for a substantial share of income; average individuals are predicted to be willing to spend more than half their income to reduce one-year mortality risk by 1 in 100. Second, mortality risk is concentrated among the elderly, for whom VSL may be smaller and who would benefit from a persistent risk reduction for a shorter period because of their shorter life expectancy. Third, the pandemic and responses to it have caused substantial losses in income that should decrease VSL. In contrast, VSL is plausibly larger for risks (like COVID-19) that are dreaded, uncertain, catastrophic, and ambiguous. These arguments are evaluated and key issues for improving estimates are highlighted.

中文翻译：

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评估 COVID-19 时期的死亡风险

在评估对 COVID-19 大流行的适当反应时，一个关键参数是财富和死亡风险之间的替代率，通常总结为每个统计生命的价值 (VSL)。对于美国，VSL 估计约为 1000 万美元，这意味着预防 100,000 例 COVID-19 死亡的价值为 1 万亿美元。这个值是不是太大了？有理由这么认为。首先，VSL 是边际替代率，潜在的风险降低是非边际的。标准 VSL 模型意味着当风险降低幅度较大时，财富替代风险降低的比率较小，但一个针对 VSL 收入弹性估计值进行校准的封闭式解决方案表明，下降速度是适度的，直到非边际风险降低占收入的很大一部分；预计平均个人愿意花费一半以上的收入来将一年的死亡风险降低 100 分之一。其次，死亡风险集中在老年人身上，他们的 VSL 可能较小，他们将从持续的风险中受益由于他们的预期寿命较短，因此减少了较短的时间。第三，大流行及其应对措施造成了收入的重大损失，这应该会降低 VSL。相比之下，对于可怕、不确定、灾难性和模棱两可的风险（如 COVID-19），VSL 似乎更大。对这些论点进行了评估，并强调了改进估计的关键问题。对谁来说，VSL 可能更小，谁会因为预期寿命较短而在较短的时间内从持续的风险降低中受益。第三，大流行及其应对措施造成了收入的重大损失，这应该会降低 VSL。相比之下，对于可怕、不确定、灾难性和模棱两可的风险（如 COVID-19），VSL 似乎更大。对这些论点进行了评估，并强调了改进估计的关键问题。对谁来说，VSL 可能更小，谁会因为预期寿命较短而在较短的时间内从持续的风险降低中受益。第三，大流行及其应对措施造成了收入的重大损失，这应该会降低 VSL。相比之下，对于可怕、不确定、灾难性和模棱两可的风险（如 COVID-19），VSL 似乎更大。对这些论点进行了评估，并强调了改进估计的关键问题。