The importance of tourism as one of the bedrocks of economic growth in South Africa suggests that volatility in the sector may have dire consequences. We therefore empirically analyse the impact of tourism volatility (TV) on the gross domestic product (GDP) volatility of the country, using time-varying approaches that treat the parameter estimations as functions of time, thereby overcoming the challenge posed by parameter instabilities, non-linearities, non-stationarity, regime shifts and time variations. We find that TV significantly aggravates GDP volatility (GDPV) in South Africa. The impact varies from year to year and is greatest during the periods characterized by economic turbulence and crime and violence against foreigners. The size of the coefficients has been on a steady increase over time, reflecting the growing importance of tourism and TV to the South African economy. We also find that TV is a significant predictor of GDPV in the country. We strongly recommend that policymakers pay serious attention to economic happenings around the world since TV is one of the channels through which global economic crises affect the South African economy. We also recommend that the minimization of crime and social disorder should form an essential component of tourism development and promotion strategy in South Africa.

旅游业作为南非经济增长的基石之一的重要性表明，该部门的动荡可能会带来可怕的后果。因此，我们使用时变方法将参数估计值作为时间的函数，从而经验地分析了旅游业波动性（TV）对国家国内生产总值（GDP）波动性的影响，从而克服了非参数波动性带来的挑战-线性，非平稳性，政权转移和时间变化。我们发现，电视极大地加剧了南非的GDP波动性（GDPV）。每年的影响各不相同，并且在经济动荡，犯罪和针对外国人的暴力行为期间最为严重。随着时间的流逝，系数的大小一直在稳定增长，反映出旅游业和电视对南非经济的重要性日益提高。我们还发现，电视是该国GDPV的重要预测指标。我们强烈建议政策制定者认真关注世界各地的经济形势，因为电视是全球经济危机影响南非经济的渠道之一。我们还建议，最大限度地减少犯罪和社会动乱应成为南非旅游业发展和促进战略的重要组成部分。