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How do Bookmakers Interpret Running Performance of Teams in Previous Games? Evidence From the Football Bundesliga
Journal of Sports Economics ( IF 1.848 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-24 , DOI: 10.1177/1527002520975827
Brian P. Soebbing 1 , Pamela Wicker 2 , Daniel Weimar 3 , Johannes Orlowski 4
Affiliation  

This study examines how running performance (intensive runs, total distance covered) of football teams in previous games impacts betting markets as it relates to expected win probability. Theoretically, bookmakers could interpret team’s running performance as effort or fatigue, with sports science studies suggesting that distance covered reflects effort and intensive runs signal fatigue. Using data from the 2011/12-2018/19 seasons of the German Bundesliga, beta regression models reveal that bookmakers interpret team’s running performance in previous games contrary to physiological explanations in sports sciences. Tests of market efficiency incorporating these findings do not find a profitable betting strategy for bettors.



中文翻译:

庄家如何解释以前比赛中球队的表现?足球德甲的证据

这项研究考察了前几场足球队的跑步表现(密集跑步,总距离)如何影响博彩市场,因为这与预期获胜概率有关。从理论上讲,庄家可以将团队的跑步表现解释为努力或疲劳,而体育科学研究表明,所覆盖的距离反映了努力,而密集跑步则表明疲劳。使用德国德甲联赛2011 / 12-2018 / 19赛季的数据,β回归模型显示,庄家解释了前几届比赛中球队的跑步表现,与体育科学中的生理学解释相反。结合这些发现进行的市场效率测试无法为投注者找到一种有利可图的投注策略。

更新日期:2020-12-23
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