This study examined the predictive validity of three assessment instruments for violent youth, the SAVRY, the VRS-YV, and the SAPROF-YV. Files relating to a sample of 233 young male offenders aged between 12 and 18 years were retrospectively reviewed to score each instrument, with reoffending data extracted from prison, community and juvenile justice records. The analysis showed that all three assessments predicted general (any) reoffending better than violent and non-violent reoffending, with higher rates of predictive validity for the SAVRY and VRS-YV Total Scores. There were, however, only small to moderate effect sizes at 1- and 3-year follow up periods for all three instruments in predicting all types of reoffending. The SAPROF-YV had a small effect size for the prediction of violent reoffending and did not add incrementally to the predictive validity (for violent reoffending) of the SAVRY or VRS-YV.

本研究检验了三种评估工具对暴力青年的预测有效性，即 SAVRY、VRS-YV 和 SAPROF-YV。回顾性审查了与 233 名年龄在 12 至 18 岁之间的年轻男性罪犯样本相关的文件，以对每种乐器进行评分，并从监狱、社区和少年司法记录中提取再犯罪数据。分析表明，所有三项评估都比暴力和非暴力再犯罪更能预测一般（任何）再犯罪，SAVRY 和 VRS-YV 总分的预测有效性更高。然而，在预测所有类型的再犯罪方面，所有三种工具在 1 年和 3 年的随访期间只有小到中等的效果。