High levels of school mobility are a problem in many urban districts. Many of these same districts are also dealing with high rates of violent crime. In this study, we use 6 years (2010–2011 to 2015–2016) of administrative data from Baltimore City public elementary school students and crime data from the Baltimore Police Department to examine whether changes in violent crime at schools are associated with the likelihood of school exit. Using logistic regression with school fixed effects to adjust for constant differences between schools, we find that students are more likely to leave following years with higher levels of violent crime at their school. These associations are strongest for students ineligible for free or reduced-price meals and from safer neighborhoods.

在许多城市地区，高学校流动性是一个问题。这些地区中的许多地区也面临着很高的暴力犯罪率。在这项研究中，我们使用巴尔的摩市公立小学学生的6年（2010-2011年至2015-2016年）行政数据和巴尔的摩警察局的犯罪数据来检查学校暴力犯罪的变化是否与学校出口。使用具有学校固定效应的逻辑回归来调整学校之间的持续差异，我们发现学生在接下来的几年中更有可能因学校暴力犯罪率较高而离开学校。对于没有资格享受免费或低价餐食且来自较安全社区的学生，这些协会最为强大。