This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.

中文翻译：

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评估奇怪的预测：足球比赛比分的奇特案例

本研究分析了英超联赛足球比赛准确比分结果的得分预测。这些预测是针对不同的比赛做出的，最初的判断也不同。我们将这些与使用博彩公司赔率和大量提示者的隐含概率预测以及从统计模型生成的点和概率预测进行比较。通过使用各种方法评估这些来源和预测类型，我们认为回归包含是比较点预测和概率预测的最合适方法，并发现这两种足球比赛比分预测类型通常会相互添加信息。