This paper uses state-level data to estimate the effect of federal defense spending shocks on state real activity. We nd moderately strong evidence that for the average state the fiscal multiplier is larger during recessions. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across the cross-section. The degree of non-linearity in the effect of spending shocks is larger in states that are subject to a higher degree of financial frictions and lower labour market rigidity. In contrast states with a prevalence of mining and agricultural industries tend to have multipliers that are more similar across business cycle phases.

中文翻译：

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美国政府支出冲击的非线性效应。来自州级数据的证据 †

本文使用州级数据来估计联邦国防支出冲击对州实际活动的影响。我们发现中等强度的证据表明，对于一般州而言，经济衰退期间的财政乘数更大。然而，横截面存在很大的异质性。在金融摩擦程度较高和劳动力市场刚性较低的国家，支出冲击影响的非线性程度更大。相比之下，矿业和农业盛行的州往往在不同的商业周期阶段拥有更相似的乘数。