This paper examines how population aging affects the output effect of a government spending shock by using a panel data of OECD countries. The government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending, and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that population aging affects the output effect of the government spending shock. While in non-aging economies, government spending shock increases output significantly in both short- and medium-terms, in aging economies, output responses are not statistically significant.

中文翻译：

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关于人口老龄化和财政政策有效性的说明

本文通过使用经合组织国家的面板数据，研究了人口老龄化如何影响政府支出冲击的产出效应。政府支出冲击被确定为政府支出的预测误差，并采用局部预测法估计其产出效应。我们发现人口老龄化影响政府支出冲击的产出效应。虽然在非老龄化经济体中，政府支出冲击会在短期和中期显着增加产出，但在老龄化经济体中，产出反应在统计上并不显着。