Unemployment periods and other career breaks have long-term scarring effects on future labour market possibilities, permanently affecting workers' retirement income and standard of living as pensioners. Previous literature has focused on the impact of job loss on working careers with little attention to its impact on pension wealth, particularly the extent to which longevity heterogeneity amplifies unemployment scars. This paper investigates the effect of single and multiple unemployment spells on the lifetime pension entitlements of earnings-related contributory pension schemes, considering the timing and duration of breaks, alternative lifecycle labour earnings profiles, scarring and restoration effects on labour market re-entry, the existence of pension credits and pension accruals for periods spent outside the labour market, longevity heterogeneity, and the accumulation and decumulation redistributive features of the pension scheme. Pension entitlements are estimated using a backward-looking simulation approach based on the actual Portuguese public pension system rules and stylized labour market profiles identified in the SHARE Job Episodes Panel data using a sequence analysis. Longevity heterogeneity is modelled using a stochastic mortality model with a frailty model. Our results show that the timing and duration of unemployment periods is critical, that scarring effects amplify pension wealth losses, that minimum pension provisions, pension credits and pension scheme redistributive features can partially mitigate the impact of unemployment periods on future entitlements, and that the presence of positive correlation between lifetime income and longevity career breaks can amplify the asymmetry in the distribution of pension entitlements across income groups.

失业期和其他职业中断会对未来的劳动力市场产生长期的疤痕影响，永久性地影响工人的退休收入和退休人员的生活水平。以前的文献集中于失业对工作职业的影响，很少关注其对养老金财富的影响，特别是寿命异质性在多大程度上加剧了失业的伤疤。本文研究了一次和多次失业时期对与收入相关的缴费型养老金计划的终身养恤金应享权利的影响，其中考虑了休息的时间和持续时间，替代性生命周期劳动力收入状况，疤痕和恢复对劳动力市场再进入的影响，在劳动力市场以外度过的时期有养老金抵免和应计养老金，寿命异质性，以及养老金计划的积累和减少再分配特征。养老金权益的估算使用了后向模拟方法，该方法基于实际的葡萄牙公共养老金系统规则以及使用序列分析在SHARE Job Episodes面板数据中确定的程式化劳动力市场概况。长寿异质性是使用具有脆弱性模型的随机死亡率模型来建模的。我们的结果表明，失业时期的时机和持续时间至关重要，疤痕效应扩大了养老金财富损失，最低养老金准备金，养老金信贷和养老金计划的再分配特征可以部分缓解失业期对未来应享权利的影响，