This paper has two main goals. The first is to fill a gap in the literature on inductive risk by exploring the relevance of the notion of inductive risk to macroeconomics. The second is to draw some general lessons about inductive risk from the case discussed here. The most important of these lessons is that the notion of inductive risk is no less relevant to the relationship between the proximate and distal goals of policy than it is to the relationship between specific policies and their proximate goals.

中文翻译：

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宏观经济学中的归纳风险：自然利率理论，货币政策和加拿大大萧条

本文有两个主要目标。首先是通过探讨归纳风险概念与宏观经济学之间的相关性来填补归纳风险文献中的空白。第二个是从此处讨论的案例中吸取有关归纳风险的一些一般性教训。这些课程中最重要的一点是，归纳风险的概念与特定策略的近端目标和远端目标之间的关系同样重要。