ABSTRACT

In this article we examine the limited effectiveness of major advanced central banks’ expansionary measures – particularly quantitative easing (QE) – in raising inflation from a post-Keynesian growth model perspective that distinguishes the sectoral-allocative effects of these policies from their class-distributive effects. In terms of sectoral-allocative effects, we empirically link the weak recovery of aggregate demand to the lack of rebalancing of the debt-led growth and export-led growth models and highlight the role of QE in reproducing these growth models. In terms of class-distributive effects, we draw attention to the flattening of the Phillips curve in advanced capitalist economies and explain this flattening from a post-Keynesian conflict model of inflation, pointing to the weakening of labour’s bargaining power as well as to the role of central banks’ overly premature withdrawal of monetary stimulus in contributing to that weakening. Finally, our analysis points to the entrenchment of a self-defeating macroeconomic policy mix (consisting of combination of loose monetary policy and restrictive fiscal policy) in debt-led and export-led growth models, which will continue to thwart efforts of central banks to significantly raise inflation.

摘要

在本文中，我们从后凯恩斯增长模型的角度考察了主要先进央行的扩张性措施——尤其是量化宽松 (QE)——在提高通胀方面的有限有效性，该模型将这些政策的部门配置效应与其阶级分配效应区分开来。效果。在部门配置效应方面，我们根据经验将总需求复苏乏力与债务带动型增长和出口带动型增长模式缺乏再平衡联系起来，并强调量化宽松在复制这些增长模式中的作用。在阶级分配效应方面，我们提请注意发达资本主义经济体菲利普斯曲线的扁平化，并从后凯恩斯主义冲突模型中解释这种扁平化的通货膨胀，指出劳工议价能力减弱，以及中央银行过早退出货币刺激措施在导致这种减弱中的作用。最后，我们的分析指出，自毁的宏观经济政策组合（包括宽松货币政策和限制性财政政策的组合）在债务导向型和出口导向型增长模式中根深蒂固，这将继续阻碍央行努力大幅推高通胀。