ABSTRACT

While it could be argued that musicians have been long conditioned to the current Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) global environment, it appears the recent challenges are testing even the most resilient and adaptable, causing one to question future professional sustainability. The methodological practice of Strategic Foresight and the use of Hajkowicz’s Global Megatrends as a guiding framework is chosen to answer the question ‘what will musicians’ livelihoods look like in 2050?’. Resultant scenarios of musicians’ futures conclude that live performance will be highly valued and in demand, and largely enabled by private funding and repurposed resources. Music, and therefore musicians, will embrace diversity and innovation in physical and digital forms, broadcasting to a global public seeking a more human experience within a non-human environment. The interim decades may see an increasing inclusion of professional non-music careers within one’s portfolio of work, further expanding generic definitions of ‘musician’. However, are experts in the fields of Music Careers and Strategic Foresight eligible to cast opinion? Can Strategic Foresight practice be even remotely applicable in these current postnormal times? Regardless, higher music education is required to adapt, and continue to adapt, by including digital literacy and futures thinking training.

摘要

尽管可以说音乐家长期以来一直适应当前的动荡，不确定，复杂和模棱两可（VUCA）全球环境，但似乎最近的挑战正在测试即使是最具弹性和适应性的挑战，也使人们对未来的职业可持续性提出了质疑。选择战略远见的方法论实践并使用Hajkowicz的全球大趋势作为指导框架来回答“ 2050年音乐家的生活将是什么样？”这一问题。音乐家的未来情景由此得出的结论是，现场表演将受到高度重视和需求，并且很大程度上将由私人资金和重新分配的资源来推动。音乐以及音乐家将以物理和数字形式拥抱多样性和创新，向在非人类环境中寻求更多人类体验的全球公众广播。在过渡的几十年中，人们可能会越来越多地将非音乐专业职业纳入自己的工作范围，从而进一步扩展了“音乐家”的通用定义。但是，音乐职业和战略远见领域的专家是否有资格发表意见？在当前的后正常时期，战略远见实践是否可以远程应用？无论如何，需要通过包括数字素养和未来思维训练来适应并继续适应高等音乐教育。音乐职业和战略远见领域的专家是否有资格发表意见？在当前的后正常时期，战略远见实践是否可以远程应用？无论如何，需要通过包含数字素养和未来思维训练来适应并继续适应高等音乐教育。音乐职业和战略远见领域的专家是否有资格发表意见？在当前的后正常时期，战略远见实践是否可以远程应用？无论如何，需要通过包括数字素养和未来思维训练来适应并继续适应高等音乐教育。