ABSTRACT

Objective

To examine several risk and protective factors as predictors of future gun violence among male juvenile offenders.

Method

Data came from a longitudinal cohort of 1,170 male juvenile offenders (42.1% Black; 34.0% Latino; 19.2% White) ages 14–19 who were adjudicated for a serious offense. Interviews were conducted with participants every 6 months for 3 years and then annually for 4 years. The outcome was self-reported gun violence assessed at each follow-up. The time-lagged predictors included several self-reported risk factors (i.e., gun carrying, non-gun violence, drug dealing, heavy drinking, poor impulse control, rewards for crime, peer gun carrying, peer non-gun delinquency, gang membership) and protective factors (i.e., concern for others, expectations, and aspirations for work/family, religious beliefs, adult social supports). The data were analyzed using generalized estimating equation models.

Results

There were 266 participants who reported engaging in gun violence at one or more assessments. Gun carrying was a significant predictor of future gun violence; however, nearly half (49%) of the juveniles who reported gun carrying across the repeated assessments did not report engaging in gun violence. Besides gun carrying, several risk (i.e., drug dealing, heavy drinking, rewards for crime, gang membership, peer gun carrying) and protective (i.e., concern for others, aspirations for work/family, religious beliefs, adult social supports) factors significantly predicted gun violence, after controlling for their co-occurrence (Risk factor odds ratios = 1.18–1.50; Protective factor odds ratios =.44-.87; ps<.05).

Conclusions

Interventions designed to prevent gun violence among juvenile offenders should reduce targeted risk factors, while strengthening protective factors that may offset these risks.

中文翻译：

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男性少年犯枪支暴力的风险和保护因素

摘要

客观的

研究几个风险和保护因素作为未来男性少年犯枪支暴力的预测因素。

方法

数据来自 1,170 名男性少年犯（42.1% 黑人；34.0% 拉丁裔；19.2% 白人）的纵向队列，年龄在 14-19 岁之间，他们被裁定犯有严重罪行。每 6 个月对参与者进行一次访谈，为期 3 年，然后每年进行 4 年。结果是在每次随访中评估的自我报告的枪支暴力。时滞预测因素包括几个自我报告的风险因素（即持枪、非枪支暴力、毒品交易、酗酒、冲动控制不佳、犯罪奖励、同伴持枪、同伴非枪支犯罪、帮派成员）和保护因素（即对他人的关心、对工作/家庭的期望和愿望、宗教信仰、成人社会支持）。使用广义估计方程模型分析数据。

结果

在一项或多项评估中，有 266 名参与者报告参与了枪支暴力。持枪是未来枪支暴力的重要预测因素；然而，在多次评估中报告携带枪支的青少年中，近一半 (49%) 没有报告参与枪支暴力。除了携带枪支之外，一些风险（即毒品交易、酗酒、犯罪奖励、帮派成员、同伴携带枪支）和保护性（即关心他人、对工作/家庭的渴望、宗教信仰、成人社会支持）因素也很重要在控制了它们的共同发生后预测的枪支暴力（风险因素优势比 = 1.18-1.50；保护因素优势比 =.44-.87；p s <.05）。

结论

旨在防止少年犯枪支暴力的干预措施应减少有针对性的风险因素，同时加强可能抵消这些风险的保护因素。