ABSTRACT

This study estimates the joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq, on Iran’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP,’ constant 2010 US$) for the period 1978–1988, during the revolution/war. I use a synthetic control approach, whereby a synthetic Iran is constructed as a weighted average of other Middle East and North Africa (‘MENA’)/Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (‘OPEC’) countries to match the average level of some key per capita GDP correlates over the period 1970–1977 as well as the evolution of the actual Iranian per capita GDP during that period. I find a sizable negative effect of the joint treatment. The average Iranian lost an accumulated sum of approximately US$ 34,660 during 1978–1988 (i.e. the average annual real per capita income loss of US$ 3,150). This loss equals 40% of the real income per capita, which an Iranian could earn in the absence of revolution and war. The confidence sets based on constant, linear, and uniform assumptions of treatment effect show that estimated income loss for Iran is sizeable and statistically significant. The results remain robust to a set of placebo tests.

摘要

本研究估计了 1978-1988 年革命/战争期间新的政治政权和对伊拉克的战争对伊朗人均国内生产总值（“GDP”，2010 年不变美元）的共同影响。我使用合成控制方法，将合成伊朗构建为其他中东和北非 ('MENA')/石油输出国组织 ('OPEC') 国家的加权平均值，以匹配某些关键国家/地区的平均水平人均 GDP 与 1970 年至 1977 年期间以及该时期伊朗实际人均 GDP 的演变相关。我发现联合治疗有相当大的负面影响。1978 年至 1988 年间，伊朗人平均损失了大约 34,660 美元（即年均实际人均收入损失 3,150 美元）。这种损失相当于人均实际收入的 40%，在没有革命和战争的情况下，伊朗人可以赚取。基于治疗效果的恒定、线性和统一假设的置信度集表明，估计伊朗的收入损失是相当大的并且具有统计学意义。结果对一组安慰剂测试仍然有效。