ABSTRACT

A thorough understanding of the relationship between quality and quantity of creative productions is critically important for creativity researchers and practitioners. The current study examines the equal odds baseline as a simple model to describe the quality–quantity relationship. Among other predictions, the equal odds baseline posits the presence of individual differences in hit ratios. In this work, the expected residual variance under the more constrained assumption that hit ratios is constant across creators is derived and implemented in a test against the observed residual variance. In the case that the equal odds baseline holds for a given dataset, this test can be used to examine the presence of individual differences in hit ratios within summary data from previously published studies. It is further shown that a significantly smaller observed residual variance as compared to the expected residual variance under strict equal odds provides strong evidence against the equal odds baseline. The outlined approach extends the equal odds baseline and is empirically illustrated with reported data from primary studies on divergent thinking, brainstorming research, and scientific productivity. The presented findings highlight the strong heuristic value of the equal odds baseline.

摘要

对创意产品的质量和数量之间的关系的透彻了解对创意研究人员和从业人员至关重要。当前的研究将等赔率基线作为描述质量与数量关系的简单模型进行检验。除其他预测外，均等赔率基准还假定命中率存在个体差异。在这项工作中，推导并在针对观察到的残留方差的测试中实施了在创作者的命中率恒定的更受约束的假设下的预期残留方差。如果给定数据集的等赔率基线成立，则可以使用该检验来检查先前发表的研究的汇总数据中命中率的个体差异是否存在。进一步表明，与在严格等赔率下的预期剩余方差相比，观察到的剩余方差显着较小，这为反对等赔率基线提供了有力证据。概述的方法扩展了机会均等基准，并通过经验证明了来自发散性思维，集思广益研究和科学生产力的基础研究的数据。提出的发现强调了等概率基线的强启发性值。