This paper uses an online survey experiment to study how President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve may affect consumers' long-run inflation expectations, confidence in the Fed, and responsiveness to information about inflation. A random subset of respondents view one of President Trump's critical tweets about the Fed, or the tweet plus a Washington Post article discussing the President as a threat to the Fed's independence. All respondents provide long-run inflation forecasts, before and after receiving information about past inflation and the Fed's inflation target. Finally, respondents rate their confidence in the President and the Fed. Respondents who view the tweet or tweet plus article have final long-run inflation forecasts that are farther from the Fed's target after exposure to information about the Fed's target and recent inflation. Exposure to the tweet plus news article has a polarizing effect on confidence, increasing the share of respondents with high confidence in either the Fed or the President.

中文翻译：

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总统对立与央行可信度

本文使用在线调查实验来研究特朗普总统对美联储的批评如何影响消费者的长期通胀预期、对美联储的信心以及对通胀信息的反应。随机的一部分受访者查看了特朗普总统关于美联储的一条批评性推文，或者这条推文加上华盛顿邮报文章将总统视为对美联储独立性的威胁。所有受访者都在收到有关过去通胀和美联储通胀目标的信息之前和之后提供长期通胀预测。最后，受访者评价他们对总统和美联储的信心。查看推文或推文加文章的受访者在接触了有关美联储目标和近期通胀的信息后，最终的长期通胀预测与美联储的目标相差甚远。接触推文和新闻文章会对信心产生两极分化的影响，增加对美联储或总统有高度信心的受访者比例。