This paper examines the extent to which solo self-employment serves as a vehicle for job creation. Using panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, a dynamic multinomial logit model of transitions between labour market states is estimated. The empirical strategy closely follows that used in a previous study employing household data from Germany by Lechmann and Wunder (2017). Estimates of true cross-state dependence between solo self-employment and employership are obtained that are relatively small. Further, the results imply that the probability of a male worker being an employer just two years after transitioning out of solo self-employment is only about 4% (and among women, it is just 2%). The extent of both true cross-state dependence and true state dependence in employership is, however, much greater among individuals who have demonstrated a preference for self-employment in the past. This implies that pro-entrepreneurial policies that target more ‘entrepreneurial’ individuals will have more pronounced and long-term effects in stimulating job creation.

本文研究了个体自营职业在多大程度上创造了就业机会。使用来自澳大利亚家庭，收入和劳动力动态（HILDA）调查的面板数据，可以估算劳动力市场状态之间转换的动态多项式logit模型。经验策略与之前的研究（Lechmann and Wunder（2017））采用了德国的家庭数据密切相关。获得的个体自营职业和雇主之间真正的跨州依赖性的估计相对较小。此外，结果表明，从个人自雇职业过渡两年后，男性工人成为雇主的可能性仅为4％（在女性中仅为2％）。然而，雇主中真正的跨州依赖性和真正的州依赖性的程度是，在过去表现出对个体经营的偏爱的个体中，这一比例要高得多。这意味着针对更多“企业家”个人的支持企业家的政策将在刺激创造就业机会方面产生更明显和长期的影响。