Countries have significantly increased their public-sector borrowing since the Global Financial Crisis. As a consequence, monetary authorities may face pressure to deviate from their policy targets in ways designed to ease the debt burden. In view of this consideration, we test for greater fiscal dominance over 2000-2017 under Inflation Targeting (IT) and non-IT regimes. We find that evidence of fiscal dominance varies across countries and debt configurations. Higher ratios of public debt-to-GDP may appear associated with lower policy interest rates in advanced economies. However, a declining natural rate of interest largely explains the pattern of lower rates and higher debt in these countries. The most robust evidence of fiscal dominance lies among emerging markets under non-IT regimes, composed mostly of exchange rate targeters. For these countries, policy interest rates are non-linearly associated with public debt levels, depending on both the level of hard-currency public debt-to-GDP and the currency composition of public debt. We also show that emerging market economies with greater exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, and underlying commodity exposure exhibit stronger associations between public debt and policy interest rates.

自全球金融危机以来，各国大幅增加了公共部门借贷。结果，货币当局可能面临以减轻债务负担的方式偏离其政策目标的压力。有鉴于此，我们在通货膨胀目标制（IT）和非IT体制下测试了2000-2017年的更大财政支配地位。我们发现，财政支配地位的证据因国家和债务配置而异。在发达经济体中，公共债务占GDP的比重较高可能与较低的政策利率有关。但是，自然利率的下降在很大程度上解释了这些国家较低的利率和较高的债务的模式。财政支配地位的最有力证据是在非IT体制下的新兴市场中，这些市场主要由汇率目标组成。对于这些国家，政策利率与公共债务水平呈非线性关系，取决于硬通货公共债务对GDP的水平以及公共债务的货币构成。我们还表明，汇率波动性，通货膨胀率波动性和相关商品风险更大的新兴市场经济体在公共债务和政策利率之间表现出更强的关联性。