This paper examines the phenomena of high rates of youth that are out of school and out of work in Latin America. The analysis pursues a dynamic approach by constructing a pseudo-panel from 234 household surveys for 18 countries in the region that allow tracing the life cycle trajectories of different cohorts over time. The trajectories are associated with a series of variables characterizing the household, community, and macro environment in which schooling, and labor market participation decisions take place. The most important result obtained is that the persistently high rates of being out of school and out of work among males are strongly associated with greater shares of women working, which can be generating a “crowding out” effect against men, given slow job creation rates across the region. The analysis also explores the possibility of scarring effects, and finds that higher shares of out of school and out of work youth at ages 15-20 years are associated with lower wages for the same cohorts later in life, at ages 35–40 years, for males and females. As for employment prospects, the analysis finds scarring effects only for females, with greater out of school and out of work youth shares being related to lower proportions of women in the labor market later in the life cycle.

本文研究了拉丁美洲失学和失业的高比率青年现象。该分析采用动态方法，通过为该地区18个国家/地区的234个家庭调查构建了一个伪面板，从而可以追踪不同人群的生命周期轨迹。这些轨迹与一系列变量有关，这些变量表征了家庭，社区和宏观环境，在这些环境中就学以及劳动力市场参与决策的发生。获得的最重要的结果是，男性不断辍学和失业的比例一直很高，这与女性工作的比例增加密切相关，鉴于创造就业机会的速度较慢，这可能对男性产生“挤出效应”。整个地区。该分析还探讨了产生疤痕效应的可能性，并发现在15至20岁年龄段的同一年龄段（35至40岁），较高的失学和失业青年比例与较低的工资相关，男性和女性。至于就业前景，该分析发现，疤痕效应仅对女性产生影响，辍学和失业的青年人比例较高，这与生命周期后期的劳动力市场中女性比例较低有关。