As immigration to Europe has increased, so has support for extremist parties. While many studies have examined the effect of immigration on election outcomes, few have probed the effect of asylum seekers – those fleeing strife and persecution – on voting, nor has there been much research on the mediating role of local economic conditions. Drawing on county level panel data from Germany, our study fills both gaps. We find that economic circumstances, as measured by the unemployment rate and the level of disposable income, condition voters’ responses to the presence of asylum seekers, but the effects for parties on the far right and left diverge markedly. Under economic prosperity, immigration increases support on both sides of the political spectrum. As economic conditions worsen, however, the effect of asylum seekers on the vote share for the far right remains stable, but weakens for the left, eventually becoming negative. This divergence – which has not yet been reported in the literature – suggests that an influx of asylum seekers, particularly when coupled with an economic downturn, could tilt a political system rightwards. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that heterogeneity arising from local economic conditions has important implications for the regional allocation of asylum seekers.

随着移民到欧洲的人数增加，对极端主义政党的支持也增加了。尽管许多研究检查了移民对选举结果的影响，但很少有人探讨寻求庇护者（逃避冲突和迫害的人）对投票的影响，也没有关于本地经济状况的中介作用的大量研究。利用德国的县级面板数据，我们的研究填补了这两个空白。我们发现，以失业率和可支配收入水平衡量的经济状况，限制了选民对寻求庇护者在场的反应，但对最右边和最左边的政党的影响却截然不同。在经济繁荣的背景下，移民增加了政治范围内双方的支持。但是，随着经济状况的恶化，寻求庇护者对最右边的投票份额的影响保持稳定，但对最左边的影响减弱，最终变为负面。这种分歧（尚未在文献中报道）表明，寻求庇护者的涌入，特别是在经济不景气的情况下，可能会使政治制度向右倾斜。从政策角度来看，这些结果表明，当地经济状况引起的异质性对寻求庇护者的区域分配具有重要意义。