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The MENA region's need for more democracy and less bureaucracy: A gravity model controlling for aspects of governance and trade freedom in MENA
The World Economy ( IF 2.000 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-14 , DOI: 10.1111/twec.13072
Esmat Mostafa Kamel 1
Affiliation  

This paper considers a domain of governance and trade freedom indicators in order to reveal some of the dimensions along which the MENA region's intra-regional trade and export intensity might be fostered. Historically, conflicts, crises and oil interests have impeded intra-MENA integration efforts and kept trade-flow intensities between the region's countries below those of its trade with RoW. But it seems evident that similarities in the governance and trade freedom indicators of MENA countries would promote such trade flows. Our empirical methodology here is to use a classical trade gravity model with augmented variables to measure intra-regional trade and export flows for MENA countries and compare them with flows for MENA_E.U. and MENA_RoW. We develop three sets of scenarios to capture the impact of governance and trade freedom indicators accordingly: First, we introduce a standardised polity index to measure its impact on accelerating intra MENA's export flows compared with MENA_EU and MENA_RoW. Second, we introduce a range-based Polity IV index and trade freedom index to test whether similarity in the governance indicators of MENA countries leads to significant intra-regional trade flows. We also test the interaction between both. Finally, to check the robustness of export flows, we include World Governance Indicators (WGI) and their sub-components in the estimations. The main result is that when two MENA trade partners are both classified as mixed regimes under the Polity IV index ranges, the coefficient becomes highly significant and bilateral trade flows increase by 1.25%. Components of (WGI) specifying government effectiveness, rule of law and control of corruption increase exports for MENA's origin exporter countries. Finally, the interaction term (Polity IV and Trade freedom ranges) captures continuous improvement in the quality of governance and self-regulated systems implemented by governing executives and authorities as they shift away from pressure and interest groups. This leads to higher degrees of mutual understanding and benefits to the region's trade flows and policies.

中文翻译:

MENA 地区需要更多的民主和更少的官僚主义:控制 MENA 治理和贸易自由方面的重力模型

本文考虑了治理和贸易自由指标的一个领域,以揭示可能促进 MENA 地区区域内贸易和出口强度的一些维度。从历史上看,冲突、危机和石油利益阻碍了中东和北非内部一体化的努力,并使该地区国家之间的贸易流动强度低于其与世界其他国家的贸易强度。但很明显,中东和北非国家治理和贸易自由指标的相似性会促进这种贸易流动。我们在此的实证方法是使用带有增广变量的经典贸易引力模型来衡量 MENA 国家的区域内贸易和出口流量,并将它们与 MENA_E.U 的流量进行比较。和 MENA_RoW。我们开发了三组情景来相应地捕捉治理和贸易自由指标的影响:首先,我们引入了一个标准化的政体指数,以衡量其与 MENA_EU 和 MENA_RoW 相比对加速 MENA 内部出口流动的影响。其次,我们引入了基于范围的政体 IV 指数和贸易自由指数,以检验 MENA 国家治理指标的相似性是否会导致显着的区域内贸易流动。我们还测试了两者之间的交互。最后,为了检查出口流量的稳健性,我们在估计中包括了世界治理指标 (WGI) 及其子组成部分。主要结果是,当两个 MENA 贸易伙伴在 Polity IV 指数范围内都被归类为混合政权时,该系数变得非常显着,双边贸易流量增加了 1.25%。(WGI) 的组成部分规定了政府效率、法治和腐败控制,增加了中东和北非原产地出口国的出口。最后,互动术语(政体 IV 和贸易自由范围)反映了治理质量和自律系统的持续改进,这些系统由治理执行官和当局实施,因为他们摆脱了压力和利益集团。这导致更高程度的相互理解和对该地区贸易流动和政策的好处。互动术语(政体 IV 和贸易自由范围)反映了治理质量的持续改进和由治理执行官和当局实施的自律系统,因为他们摆脱了压力和利益集团。这导致更高程度的相互理解和对该地区贸易流动和政策的好处。互动术语(政体 IV 和贸易自由范围)反映了治理质量的持续改进和由治理执行官和当局实施的自律系统,因为他们摆脱了压力和利益集团。这导致更高程度的相互理解和对该地区贸易流动和政策的好处。
更新日期:2020-12-14
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