We quantify how testing and targeted quarantine make it possible to reopen an economy in such a way that output increases while deaths are reduced. We augment a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with (i) virological testing, (ii) serological testing, (iii) permanently asymptomatic individuals, (iv) incomplete information, and (v) a reduced form behavioral response of reopening to changes in health risks. Virological testing allows for targeted quarantine of asymptotic spreaders. Serological testing allows for targeted release of recovered individuals. We fit our model to U.S. data. Virological tests every two weeks accommodate more aggressive reopening that more than halves output losses while keeping deaths below forecasts under the status quo. Serological tests are much less effective. Implementing testing against a fixed budget, low sensitivity tests that are cheap and used frequently, dominate perfect tests that are expensive and used less frequently.

我们量化了测试和有针对性的隔离如何使经济重新开放，从而使产量增加而死亡人数减少。我们通过 (i) 病毒学检测、(ii) 血清学检测、(iii) 永久无症状个体、(iv) 不完整信息和 (v) 简化形式的行为反应来增强标准的易感暴露感染恢复 (SEIR) 模型重新开放以应对健康风险的变化。病毒学测试允许有针对性地隔离渐近传播者。血清学检测允许有针对性地释放康复个体。我们将我们的模型拟合到美国数据。每两周进行一次病毒学测试，以适应更积极的重新开放，这将产出损失减少一半以上，同时将死亡人数保持在现状下的预测以下。血清学测试的效果要差得多。