Review of Economic Dynamics ( IF 1.712 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2020.11.006 Nida Çakır Melek , Michael Plante , Mine K. Yücel
We examine the implications of the U.S. shale oil boom for the U.S. economy, trade balances, and the global oil market. Using comprehensive data on different types of crude oil, and a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous oil and refined products, we show that the shale boom boosted U.S. real GDP by a little more than 1 percent and improved the oil trade balance as a share of GDP by about 1 percentage point from 2010 to 2015. The boom led to a decline in oil and fuel prices, and a dramatic fall in U.S. light oil imports. In addition, we find that the crude oil export ban, a policy in effect until the end of 2015, was a binding constraint, and would likely have remained a binding constraint thereafter had the policy not been removed.
中文翻译:
资源繁荣与宏观经济:美国页岩油案例
我们研究了美国页岩油繁荣对美国经济、贸易平衡和全球石油市场的影响。使用不同类型原油的综合数据,以及具有异质性石油和成品油的两国一般均衡模型,我们表明,页岩气繁荣使美国实际 GDP 提高了 1% 以上,并改善了石油贸易平衡从 2010 年到 2015 年,占 GDP 的份额下降了约 1 个百分点。繁荣导致石油和燃料价格下降,美国轻油进口急剧下降。此外,我们发现,直到 2015 年底才生效的原油出口禁令是一个约束性约束,如果不取消该政策,此后很可能仍然是一个约束性约束。