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The autocratic gamble: evidence from robust variance tests
Economics of Governance ( IF 0.781 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s10101-020-00245-4
Fabio Monteforte , Jonathan R. W. Temple

This paper examines whether autocracy is a gamble. Using robust variance tests and other analyses, we find that long-term growth varies more across autocracies than across democracies. This remains true even when richer countries are excluded from the sample. We also investigate channels, to see if the higher variance of growth outcomes across autocracies can be traced to a higher variance in investment ratios or productivity growth. Overall, the paper’s findings suggest that growth prospects are more uncertain for autocracies than democracies, and especially for closed autocracies. From the viewpoint of a domestic population, autocracy remains a gamble.



中文翻译:

专制赌博:强大的方差检验的证据

本文研究了独裁是否是一场赌博。使用稳健的方差检验和其他分析,我们发现,长期增长的变化在独裁国家比在民主国家更大。即使样本中排除了富裕国家,情况依然如此。我们还调查渠道,以查看跨独裁体的增长结果的较高方差是否可以归因于投资比率或生产率增长的较大方差。总体而言,本文的研究结果表明,独裁政体的增长前景比民主政体更不确定,尤其是封闭式独裁政体。从家庭人口的角度来看,专制仍然是一场赌博。

更新日期:2020-10-27
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