Using the demand-side approach we provide new estimates of output per capita for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 1913, 1922, 1929, and 1938. Our findings suggest that the levels of real output per capita in Estonia and Latvia were much above the all-Russian mean in 1913. In 1938, the output per capita of Estonia and Latvia surpassed the prewar level by up to 20%, but the total output of Latvia did not reach this mark because of population reduction. Structural changes in the interwar Estonian and Latvian economies explain long postwar recovery and modest growth beyond the prewar levels. In 1892–1914, there was export-oriented industrialization of Latvia, resembling the development of Eastern Asian “tigers” in the late twentieth century. By 1914, mainland Latvia was an “entrepôt industrial economy,” created mainly by the foreign direct investments of Western companies that established their subsidiaries there beyond the Russian protective customs wall. After the loss of the Russian market, Latvia and Estonia partially deindustrialized and reagrarized, while the interwar independence period was too short for policies of “Denmarkization” to bring about strong catching-up growth. Therefore, their standing in the international ranking according to output per capita did not improve over the 1913–1938 period. Lithuanian output per capita stagnated until 1929 because of infraction of its economic integrity by the loss of the Vilnius area and difficulties of economic integration of the formerly German Klaipėda (Memel) region, but did grow rapidly in 1930s up to 40% of 1913 level by 1938.

使用需求方方法，我们提供了爱沙尼亚，拉脱维亚和立陶宛在1913、1922、1929和1938年的人均产出的新估计。我们的发现表明，爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚的人均实际产出水平大大高于1913年为全俄平均水平。1938年，爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚的人均产量超过战前水平达20％，但由于人口减少，拉脱维亚的总产量未能达到这一水平。两次世界大战之间的爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚经济结构发生变化，解释了战后长期复苏以及战前水平以外的适度增长。1892年至1914年，拉脱维亚出现了出口导向的工业化，类似于20世纪后期东亚“老虎”的发展。到1914年，拉脱维亚大陆已成为“完全工业化的经济体，”主要是由西方公司的外国直接投资创建的，这些公司在俄罗斯保护性海关隔离墙之外在那里建立了子公司。在俄罗斯市场丧失之后，拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚进行了部分工业化和重新组织化，而两次世界大战的独立时期对于“丹麦化”政策来说太短了，无法实现强劲的追赶性增长。因此，按照人均产出，他们在国际排名中的地位在1913年至1938年期间并没有改善。立陶宛的人均产出一直停滞到1929年，原因是维尔纽斯地区的丧失和前德国克莱佩达（Memel）地区的经济整合困难，破坏了经济完整性，但在1930年代迅速增长，到1913年达到40％。 1938年。