Translocations—the movement of species from one place to another—are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata), a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted, primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of over-predation, coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population (approx. 40 individuals in the wild), makes this species a candidate for a conservation translocation. Here, we use species distribution models to identify translocation sites for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Our models exhibited high predictive accuracy, and show that terrain roughness, a surrogate for predator refugia, is the most important variable. Tasmania, which currently has no rock-wallabies, showed high suitability and is fox-free, making it a promising candidate site. We outline our argument for the trial translocation of rock-wallaby to Maria Island, located off Tasmania's eastern coast. This research offers a transparent assessment of the translocation potential of a threatened species, which can be adapted to other taxa and systems.

随着保护工作的进行，保护小规模的孤立种群免遭丛林大火等极端事件造成的威胁，易位转移（物种从一个地方到另一个地方的迁移）可能会变得越来越普遍。最近澳大利亚发生的大火烧毁了刷尾岩袋鼠（Petrogale Pencillata）栖息地的近40％），一种受威胁物种，其分布已经受到限制，这主要是由于入侵物种的掠食。这种长期过度捕食的威胁，再加上遗传上不同的南部种群（在野生地区约有40个个体）的灭绝，使该物种成为保护易位的候选物种。在这里，我们使用物种分布模型来识别刷尾岩袋鼠的易位部位。我们的模型显示出很高的预测准确性，并且表明地形粗糙度（捕食者避难所的替代物）是最重要的变量。塔斯马尼亚州目前没有岩袋鼠，显示出高度的适应性并且不含狐狸，使其成为一个有希望的候选地点。我们概述了将岩袋鼠试点转移到塔斯马尼亚岛东海岸附近的玛丽亚岛的观点。