Many organisms live in networks of local populations connected by dispersing individuals, called spatially structured populations (SSPs), where the long-term persistence of the entire network is determined by the balance between 2 processes acting at the scale of local populations: extinction and colonization. When multiple threats act on an SSP, a comparison of the different factors determining local extinctions and colonizations is essential to plan sound conservation actions. We assessed the drivers of long-term population dynamics of multiple amphibian species at the regional scale. We used dynamic occupancy models within a Bayesian framework to identify the factors determining persistence and colonization of local populations. Because connectivity among patches is fundamental to SSPs dynamics, we considered 2 measures of connectivity acting on each focal patch: incidence of the focal species and incidence of invasive crayfish. We used meta-analysis to summarize the effect of different drivers at the community level. Persistence and colonization of local populations were jointly determined by factors acting at different scales. Persistence probability was positively related to the area and the permanence of wetlands, whereas it was negatively related to occurrence of fish. Colonization probability was highest in semipermanent wetlands and in sites with a high incidence of the focal species in nearby sites, whereas it showed a negative relationship with the incidence of invasive crayfish in the landscape. By analyzing long-term data on amphibian population dynamics, we found a strong effect of some classic features commonly used in SSP studies, such as patch area and focal species incidence. The presence of an invasive non-native species at the landscape scale emerged as one of the strongest drivers of colonization dynamics, suggesting that studies on SSPs should consider different connectivity measures more frequently, such as the incidence of predators, especially when dealing with biological invasions.

中文翻译：

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空间结构两栖动物种群中持久性和定殖动态的长期驱动因素

许多生物生活在由分散的个体连接的本地种群网络中，称为空间结构种群 (SSP)，其中整个网络的长期持久性取决于在本地种群规模上起作用的两个过程之间的平衡：灭绝和殖民. 当多个威胁作用于 SSP 时，比较决定当地灭绝和殖民化的不同因素对于规划合理的保护行动至关重要。我们评估了区域范围内多种两栖动物物种长期种群动态的驱动因素。我们在贝叶斯框架内使用动态占用模型来确定决定当地人口持久性和殖民化的因素。因为补丁之间的连通性是 SSP 动态的基础，我们考虑了作用于每个焦点斑块的 2 种连通性度量：焦点物种的发生率和入侵小龙虾的发生率。我们使用荟萃分析来总结不同驱动因素在社区层面的影响。当地人口的持久性和殖民化是由在不同尺度上起作用的因素共同决定的。持续概率与湿地的面积和永久性呈正相关，而与鱼类的发生呈负相关。在半永久性湿地和附近地点焦点物种发生率高的地点，定植概率最高，而它与景观中入侵小龙虾的发生率呈负相关。通过分析两栖动物种群动态的长期数据，我们发现了 SSP 研究中常用的一些经典特征的强烈影响，例如斑块面积和焦点物种发生率。在景观尺度上入侵的非本地物种的存在成为殖民动态的最强驱动力之一，这表明对 SSP 的研究应该更频繁地考虑不同的连通性措施，例如捕食者的发生率，尤其是在处理生物入侵时.