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Mean Reversion in Investment Decisions: The Case of Hollywood*
The Journal of Industrial Economics ( IF 1.054 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-07 , DOI: 10.1111/joie.12218
Ryan Lampe 1 , Romans Pancs 2
Affiliation  

One explanation for the comparatively lower quality of movie sequels is selection bias, known in personnel economics as the Peter principle. Only abnormally successful movies are selected for a sequel. Another explanation is a deterministic depreciation in quality due to the decline in the novelty of the sequel’s characters and storyline. Both explanations predict that, relative to the original, the sequel’s performance will revert towards the mean. We develop a structural model to decompose the two explanations, and estimate its parameters using detailed data on 306 franchise films and 2,823 non‐franchise films between 1995 and 2014. Parameter estimates provide evidence of selection bias for action & adventure and horror movies, and evidence of a deterministic decline in quality for comedies.

中文翻译:

投资决策的均值回归:以好莱坞为例*

电影续集质量相对较低的一种解释是选择偏见,在人员经济学中被称为彼得原理。仅选择异常成功的电影作为续集。另一种解释是由于续集角色和故事情节的新颖性下降而导致的确定性折旧。两种解释都预测,相对于原始版本,续集的表现将恢复为均值。我们建立了一个结构模型来分解这两种解释,并使用1995年至2014年之间的306部特许电影和2,823部非特许电影的详细数据来估计其参数。参数估计提供了动作冒险和恐怖电影的选择偏见证据,以及证据确定性喜剧质量下降。
更新日期:2020-04-07
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