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Do you bend or break? System dynamics in resilience planning for food security
System Dynamics Review ( IF 3.040 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-03 , DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1643
Hugo Jose Herrera de Leon 1 , Birgit Kopainsky 1
Affiliation  

This paper discusses our experience in using system dynamics to facilitate resilience planning for food security in rural communities that are exposed to ever‐increasing climatic pressures in Guatemala. The social–ecological systems literature is rich in examples where policies to enhance resilience are deduced from factors generally accepted to be present in resilient systems (e.g. redundancy, connectivity and polycentrism). This deductive approach risks being overly simplistic. As an alternative, this paper explores how insights from analysing the structure–behaviour relationship of complex dynamic systems can be used to generate tailored policies. The results show that stability in food systems is mainly driven by key strategic resources that moderate the effects of environmental changes on food availability and affordability. Moreover, our experience highlights the importance of analysing mechanisms that determine a system's behaviour while and after the system is affected by a disturbance to formulate effective resilience policies.

中文翻译:

你弯曲还是折断?粮食安全复原力规划中的系统动态

本文讨论了我们在利用系统动力学来促进在危地马拉面临不断增加的气候压力的农村社区的粮食安全防灾规划中的经验。社会生态系统文献中有很多例子,其中从通常被认为存在于弹性系统中的因素(例如冗余,连通性和多中心主义)推论出增强弹性的政策。这种演绎方法可能过于简单。作为替代方案,本文探讨了如何将通过分析复杂动态系统的结构-行为关系获得的见解用于生成量身定制的策略。结果表明,粮食系统的稳定性主要由关键的战略资源驱动,这些资源可缓和环境变化对粮食供应和可负担性的影响。此外,
更新日期:2020-02-03
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