We study welfare costs of the uncertainty about monetary policy in the economy featuring shifting trend inflation. We follow Ruge‐Murcia (J Econ Dyn Control 36: 914–‐938, 2012) to employ the SMM approach to fit the model to the US data (1979Q1‐2015Q1). We find that the monetary policy uncertainty affects economic welfare through different dimensions. On the one hand, the policy uncertainty itself distorts the economic welfare negligibly, not only by increasing volatilities of consumption and leisure, but also by decreasing their average levels. A higher level of trend inflation then signifies these changes to produce greater welfare costs. Furthermore, the adverse impacts of policy uncertainty on the economy, documented by the impulse response functions of macroeconomic variables to policy uncertainty shock, become larger when central banks raise their inflation targets. On the other hand, the costs of exogenous variations in trend inflation are larger if there is policy uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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随着通货膨胀趋势的变化，经济中货币政策不确定性的福利成本

我们研究了以趋势通货膨胀为特征的经济中货币政策不确定性的福利成本。我们遵循Ruge‐Murcia（J Econ Dyn Control 36：914–‐938，2012），采用SMM方法将模型拟合到美国数据（1979Q1-2015Q1）。我们发现货币政策的不确定性通过不同的维度影响经济福利。一方面，政策不确定性本身不仅会通过增加消费和休闲的波动性，而且还会通过降低其平均水平来使经济福利微不足道。然后，较高水平的趋势通货膨胀意味着这些变化将产生更大的福利成本。此外，宏观经济变量对政策不确定性冲击的冲激响应函数证明了政策不确定性对经济的不利影响，当中央银行提高通货膨胀目标时​​，规模会扩大 另一方面，如果存在政策不确定性，趋势通货膨胀的外生变化的成本会更大。