This paper empirically explores the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Japanese manufacturing sector. We estimate a gravity model of FDI for 30 host countries covering the period 2005–2017, using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood to tackle the issue of zero-value observations. The results indicate that Japanese overseas investments are not only driven by traditional factors, such as market size, the yen real exchange rate, trade openness, differences in perception of corruption, and financial instability, but also by industry characteristics. In particular, we find that low technological industries characterized by growing labour costs are more likely to be relocated abroad. Furthermore, we demonstrate nonlinearities in the determinants of Japanese overseas investments depending on the host country's development, the host country's region, and the category of FDI implemented (vertical vs horizontal).

中文翻译：

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对外直接投资的宏观经济、制度和部门决定因素：来自日本的证据

本文实证探讨了日本制造业对外直接投资 (FDI) 的决定因素。我们估计了 2005-2017 年期间 30 个东道国的 FDI 引力模型，使用泊松伪最大似然来解决零值观察问题。结果表明，日本海外投资不仅受市场规模、日元实际汇率、贸易开放度、腐败观念差异和金融不稳定等传统因素的驱动，还受行业特征的驱动。特别是，我们发现以劳动力成本上升为特征的低技术产业更有可能转移到国外。此外，我们证明了日本海外投资决定因素的非线性取决于东道国的发展，与水平）。