This paper analyzes the current phase of backlash of economic globalization using a target zone approach in an environment populated by heterogeneous agents. The target zone analysis suggests that there may be a positive expectation effect (a ‘honeymoon’) when the social costs are credibly expected to remain below the benefits arising from globalization. In such a situation, the latter proceeds even beyond the level that society would be willing to accept in the absence of a such a target. When the costs are expected to exceed the benefits, instead, the opposite phenomenon (a ‘divorce’) arises. While in the case of exchange rates or interest rates, the passage from ‘honeymoon’ to ‘divorce’ might well occur with a discrete jump of the respective variable, rather than gradually, this is not the case when considering economic and social costs. Graduality is obtained thanks to the introduction of the hypothesis of heterogeneous agents. The proportion of those who think that the costs of globalization exceed the benefits increases with globalization and the ‘honeymoon’’, then, gradually turns into a ‘divorce’. Government's redistributive intervention to compensate the losers, however, could reduce the costs of globalization, thereby delaying or even preventing its crisis.

中文翻译：

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具有异构主体的模型中当前经济全球化的反弹分析

本文使用目标区域方法在异构代理人所居住的环境中分析了经济全球化的反弹阶段。目标区域分析表明，当人们可靠地预期社会成本保持在全球化带来的收益以下时，可能会有积极的预期效果（“蜜月”）。在这种情况下，后者的发展甚至超出了在没有这种目标的情况下社会愿意接受的水平。相反，当预期成本超过收益时，就会出现相反的现象（“离婚”）。在汇率或利率的情况下，从“蜜月”到“离婚”的转变很可能是各个变量的离散跳跃而不是逐渐的跳跃，考虑经济和社会成本时情况并非如此。由于引入了异构代理的假设，因此获得了应届毕业生学位。那些认为全球化的代价超过利益的人的比例随着全球化和“蜜月”的增加而增加，然后逐渐变成“离婚”。但是，政府为补偿失败者而进行的重新分配干预措施可能会降低全球化的成本，从而延迟甚至预防危机。