Using a Bayesian cohort‐based mortality model, we identify strong evidence of mortality postponement at older ages in the United States. We use the results of the model to project mortality rates 75 years ahead, and show that this will likely raise the U. S. old‐age dependency ratio to ~55% by 2090 (~30% larger than the Social Security Administration [SSA] intermediate estimates). We estimate how this will affect the finances of the Old‐Age and Survivors Insurance program as modeled by the SSA. In our median estimate, using the SSA's intermediate‐cost assumptions, mortality postponement will raise the open‐system unfunded liability over a 75‐year period by around $6.8trn over SSA estimates, worsening the actuarial balance of the program by an extra 1.30% of taxable payroll. Mortality postponement will also have significant implications for other government programs, notably Medicare, and for private‐sector financial intermediaries, such as pension funds and insurance companies, as well as private households.

中文翻译：

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80将成为新的70：美国推迟老年死亡率及其对OASI计划财务的影响

使用基于贝叶斯队列的死亡率模型，我们确定了美国老年人死亡延迟的有力证据。我们使用模型的结果来预测75年后的死亡率，并表明这可能会使美国的老年抚养比到2090年提高到约55％（比美国社会保障局[SSA]的中间估计高出约30％） ）。我们估计这将如何影响SSA建模的老年和幸存者保险计划的财务状况。在我们的中位数估计中，使用SSA的中间成本假设，死亡率延迟将使SSS估计的开放系统在75年内无资金准备的负债增加约6.8trn，使该计划的精算余额额外增加1.30％。应税工资单。