In recent years, law schools have experienced a decline in enrollment and bar passage, and legal education has been challenged to understand this new phenomenon and conduct research that can inform practices and policies regarding law student success. This article presents findings from research conducted at the University of Cincinnati College of Law, a large, midwestern public university, which aimed to investigate which factors and student characteristics contribute to bar passage within the home jurisdiction (Ohio). Results suggest bar passage can be predicted by a wide battery of variables, most notably student performance during the law school course of study. Despite some prior literature that suggests otherwise, however, LSAT and undergraduate GPA were only weakly predictive of first‐time bar passage among admitted students: the best prelaw model based on student admissions and demographic data identified just over one‐third of the students who ultimately failed the bar on the first attempt. Information from the first year of law school—even just performance in one first semester course—explained significantly more variation in bar passage. Furthermore, data from beyond the first year of legal study, including upper‐level course taking in bar‐tested subjects, enriched the predictive power of the model, enabling us to predict 78 percent of students who failed the bar compared to just 58 percent after the first year. These preliminary results provide important insights into bar passage, particularly given the increased public scrutiny around incoming student credentials, bar success, and law school performance and accreditation.

中文翻译：

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更深入地了解律师的成功：法学院学生的成功，学习成绩和学生特征之间的关系

近年来，法学院的入学率和律师资格不断下降，法学教育也面临着挑战，要求了解这种新现象并开展研究，以为法学院学生的成功提供实践和政策依据。本文介绍了由辛辛那提大学法学院（一家大型的中西部公立大学）进行的研究得出的结果，该研究旨在调查哪些因素和学生特征在家庭管辖权（俄亥俄州）内阻碍律师通过。结果表明，可以通过一系列变量来预测律师通过率，其中最值得注意的是法学院学习过程中的学生表现。尽管有一些先前的文献提出了相反的建议，但是，LSAT和本科生的GPA只是对录取学生中首次通过律师资格的预测较弱：根据学生入学率和人口统计数据得出的最佳法律前判例模型，识别出超过三分之一的学生在首次尝试中最终失败了。法学院第一年的信息，甚至只是在一学期课程中的表现，都说明律师通过率的差异更大。此外，法学第一年以后的数据，包括在经过Bar测试的科目中参加的高级课程，丰富了该模型的预测能力，使我们能够预测78％的法律不及格的学生，而之后只有58％的学生不及格。第一年。这些初步结果为律师通过提供了重要的见解，特别是考虑到公众越来越多的对入学学生证书，律师成功以及法学院表现和认证的审查。