The purpose of this study is to develop a behavioral framework for management decision‐making under bounded rationality to analyze foreign direct investments and political risks in host countries. This study shows that managers construct reference points on political risks and assess actual political risks in host countries relative to these reference points. This study considers that the political risk reference point is a mental map made up of (a) perceived political risks in host countries where multinational corporations (MNCs) operate and (b) home country political risks. We find that MNCs interpret political risks in host countries as opportunities (threats) if the political risks are below (above) their reference points. Our study provides a significant contribution to the literature on microfoundations of location strategy.

中文翻译：

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跨国公司的政治风险和外国直接投资：参考点法

本研究的目的是为有限理性下的管理决策制定一个行为框架，以分析东道国的外国直接投资和政治风险。这项研究表明，管理者可以构建有关政治风险的参考点，并根据这些参考点评估东道国的实际政治风险。这项研究认为，政治风险参考点是由（a）跨国公司（MNC）经营所在国的感知政治风险和（b）母国政治风险组成的思维导图。我们发现，如果跨国公司的政治风险低于（高于）其参考点，则跨国公司会将其在东道国的政治风险视为机会（威胁）。我们的研究为有关定位策略的微观基础的文献提供了重要的贡献。