Whether voter turnout is sticky, that is, whether turnout shocks persist over time, is important both for the evaluation of institutional reforms and to inform about assumptions in behavioral models of turnout. This study examines an exogenous and large turnout boost caused by combining a high‐office with a low‐office election, but does not find that this contemporaneous turnout boost per se persists at subsequent, nonconcurrent low‐office elections. Heterogeneity analyses rather show that the effect is conditional on the closeness of the low‐office election: Close elections lead to positive turnout persistence, while clearly decided races even discourage from voting in the next election. An explanation is that the turnout boost causes voters to update their beliefs about the probability of being pivotal.

中文翻译：

---

政治效力和投票率冲击的持续存在

选民投票率是否具有粘性，即投票率冲击是否会随着时间持续存在，这对于评估机构改革和告知投票率行为模型中的假设都很重要。这项研究考察了由高职位和低职位选举相结合而产生的外来的，大量的投票率提高，但是没有发现这种同时的投票率提高本身在随后的非并行的低职位选举中仍然存在。异质性分析更确切地表明，其影响取决于低官选举的接近性：亲近的选举会导致积极的投票率持续性，而明确决定的种族甚至不愿在下届选举中投票。一种解释是，投票率的提高导致选民更新了他们对关键人物的看法。