Do sovereign bond markets react systematically to microeconomic policy reforms? Some observers suggest that investors are very attentive to supply‐side policies such as those related to labor markets, corporate taxation, and product standards. They argue that, along with macroeconomic outcomes and broad financial market conditions, such reforms affect sovereign bond premiums, for developed as well as emerging economies. In contrast, we predict few systematic effects of supply‐side policy reforms on sovereign bond market outcomes. Our theory draws on a standard three‐equation model of the economy, widely accepted among economic and finance professionals. That model makes few clear predictions regarding the anticipated effects of microeconomic policy changes; as a result, we expect that such reforms will not generate systematic market reactions. Our analyses, based on daily data from 37 countries from 2004 to 2012, indeed reveal little evidence of a systematic bond market reaction to the 47 most significant reforms to corporate taxation and labor market regulation. These results call into question the notion that “bond market vigilantes” play a central role in compelling governments to enact specific microeconomic policy changes.

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市场移动？政府债券投资者与微观经济政策变化

主权债券市场是否对微观经济政策改革做出系统反应？一些观察家认为，投资者非常注意供应方政策，例如与劳动力市场，公司税收和产品标准有关的政策。他们认为，连同宏观经济结果和广泛的金融市场状况，这种改革影响发达和新兴经济体的主权债券溢价。相比之下，我们预测供应方政策改革对主权债券市场结果的系统影响很小。我们的理论基于标准的经济三方程模型，在经济和金融专业人士中广为接受。对于微观经济政策变化的预期影响，该模型几乎没有明确的预测；因此，我们希望此类改革不会引起系统的市场反应。我们根据2004年至2012年间37个国家/地区的每日数据进行的分析，确实没有发现证据表明债券市场对47种最重要的公司税和劳动力市场监管改革做出了系统反应。这些结果使人们质疑“债券市场守卫者”在迫使政府制定具体的微观经济政策变化方面起着核心作用。