City logistics and goods movement using road freight is an outcome of the economic activities that sustain urban life. However, they produce negative externalities like traffic congestion and pollution. There are key areas within cities that are largely affected by logistics activities, such as commercial centres and retail districts. These locations attract many freight vehicles attempting to fulfil deliveries, often with limited parking supply. This results in long queues of delivery trucks waiting for parking spaces or illegal kerbside parking. Therefore, urban planners and decision-makers are motivated to initiate policies that can mitigate these impacts. Urban freight management policies like delivery time or truck size restrictions, and Urban Consolidation Centres (UCC) have been proposed as potential solutions. A UCC is a facility that allows deliveries to be consolidated before entering a busy commercial area. The focus of this study is to offer a theoretical framework for predicting the impact of a UCC on the number of freight trips attracted to a retail district in any city. A mathematical model is developed and used to analyse two possible policy cases concerning the location of a UCC: one where the UCC is located within the retail district, and another where the UCC is located outside the retail district. This model is subsequently applied to examine a retail district in Singapore using real-world data. The critical level of participation in a UCC scheme required for the retail district to experience fewer freight trips is characterised. The results show a diminishing marginal benefit associated with achieving greater consolidation by operating the UCC. This contribution offers a theoretical explanation for the traffic impacts of urban freight consolidation, and aids with the development an ex-ante evaluation of a UCC. The model may be readily applied to any city considering this initiative, by adjusting the model parameters for local conditions.

使用公路货运的城市物流和货物运输是维持城市生活的经济活动的结果。但是，它们会产生负面的外部影响，例如交通拥堵和污染。城市中有一些主要受物流活动影响的关键区域，例如商业中心和零售区。这些地点吸引了许多试图完成交付的货运车辆，而这些车辆通常停车位有限。这导致送货卡车排队等候停车位或非法路边停车。因此，城市规划者和决策者有动力发起可以减轻这些影响的政策。已经提出了诸如交货时间或卡车尺寸限制之类的城市货运管理政策以及城市整合中心（UCC）作为潜在的解决方案。UCC是一种允许在进入繁忙的商业区域之前合并交货的设施。这项研究的重点是提供一个理论框架，以预测UCC对吸引到任何城市的零售区的货运次数的影响。开发了数学模型并用于分析有关UCC位置的两个可能的政策案例：一个UCC位于零售区之内，另一个UCC位于零售区之外。此模型随后用于使用实际数据检查新加坡的零售区。表征了零售区经历较少货运行程所需的参与UCC计划的关键水平。结果表明，与通过运营UCC实现更大的整合相关的边际收益不断减少。该贡献为城市货运整合的交通影响提供了理论解释，并有助于对UCC进行事前评估。通过针对当地条件调整模型参数，该模型可以很容易地应用于考虑该计划的任何城市。