This paper illustrates long-term trends in human population and climate from the Late Pleistocene to the Late Holocene (14,000–2500 cal. yr. BP) in order to assess to what degree climate change impacted human societies in the Near East. It draws on a large corpus of archaeo-demographic data, including anthropogenic radiocarbon dates (n = 10,653) and archaeological site survey (n = 22,533), and 16 hydro-climatic records from cave speleothems and lake sediments. Where possible, inferred population dynamics and climatic trends have been made spatially congruent, and their relationships have been statistically tested. Demographic proxies and palaeoclimatic records have been compared for the greater Near East as a whole and for seven major geo-cultural regions (Anatolia, Arabia, Cyprus, Iran, Levant, Mesopotamia, and South Caucasus). This approach allows us to identify regionalised patterns in population and climate trends. The results suggest a clear relationship between population and climate in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene (14,000–8326 cal. yr. BP) with population increasing in concomitance with wetter climatic conditions. During the Middle Holocene (8326-4200 cal. yr. BP) there is an increased regionalisation of demographic patterns, followed by marked interregional contrasts in the Late Holocene (4200-2500 cal. yr. BP). We identify a decoupling of demographic and climatic trends from the Middle Holocene onwards, and relate this to the existence of more complex societies. These were less vulnerable to gradual climatic shifts due to their logistical infrastructure, social organisation and technological capacity. We also assess the impact of five Rapid Climate Changes (RCC) which occurred during the study period on population levels. Although all five RCC (the so-called 10.2 k, 9.2 k, 8.2 k, 4.2 k, and 3.2 k cal. yr. BP events) are visible to some degree in our palaeoclimatic and demographic proxies, there are marked regional variations in magnitude and duration.

本文说明了从晚更新世到晚全新世（14,000-2500 cal。yr。BP）人类人口和气候的长期趋势，以便评估气候变化在多大程度上影响了近东的人类社会。它利用了大量的考古人口数据，包括人为的放射性碳年代（n = 10,653）和考古现场调查（n = 22,533），以及来自洞穴洞穴和湖底沉积物的16个水文气候记录。在可能的情况下，推断出的种群动态和气候趋势在空间上是一致的，并且它们之间的关系已经过统计学检验。比较了整个较大的近东地区和七个主要地理文化区域（安纳托利亚，阿拉伯，塞浦路斯，伊朗，黎凡特，美索不达米亚和南高加索地区）的人口代理和古气候记录。这种方法使我们能够确定人口和气候趋势的区域化模式。结果表明，更新世晚期和全新世早期（14,000–8326 cal。yr。BP）的人口与气候之间的明确关系与随着气候条件变湿而增加的人口。在中全新世（8326-4200 yr。BP）期间，人口分布的区域化增加，随后是全新世晚期（4200-2500 cal。BP）区域间的明显对比。我们确定了从全新世中期开始的人口与气候趋势之间的脱钩，并将其与更复杂的社会的存在联系起来。由于它们的后勤基础设施，社会组织和技术能力，它们较不容易受到气候变化的影响。我们还评估了在研究期间发生的五次快速气候变化（RCC）对人口水平的影响。尽管在我们的古气候和人口统计数据中都可以看到所有五个RCC（所谓的10.2 k，9.2 k，8.2 k，4.2 k和3.2 k cal.yr BP事件），但是在一定程度上存在明显的区域差异和持续时间。