当前位置: X-MOL 学术Fish. Res. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
A logistic function to track time-dependent fish population dynamics
Fisheries Research ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105840
Mahmood Jokar , Sam Subbey , Harald Gjøsæter

Abstract This paper uses a two-parameter logistic function to model the dynamics of length-at-maturation for the Barents Sea capelin over the past 47 years. We estimate the function parameters using a combination of length-age data from scientific surveys, and commercial catch statistics. Using temporal variability in the function parameters, we demonstrate that the time series of stock biomass defines a three-state Markov process, that qualitatively represent high, moderate, and collapse states of the stock biomass. We make inference about transition times between the states by calculating the mean passage times for the Markov process. Our analyses also show that maturation intensity is higher at low stock size (leading to shorter lengths at maturation), compared to when biomass levels are either high or moderately high. Our results are central to management of this stock, as uncertainty in estimating the proportion of maturing biomass affects harvest decisions and ultimately, the sustainability of the stock.

中文翻译:

跟踪时间相关鱼类种群动态的逻辑函数

摘要 本文使用双参数逻辑函数对过去 47 年巴伦支海毛鳞鱼的成熟长度动态进行建模。我们结合科学调查的长度-年龄数据和商业捕捞统计数据来估计函数参数。使用函数参数的时间可变性,我们证明了库存生物量的时间序列定义了一个三态马尔可夫过程,它定性地代表了库存生物量的高、中和崩溃状态。我们通过计算马尔可夫过程的平均通过时间来推断状态之间的转换时间。我们的分析还表明,与生物量水平高或中等高时相比,低种群规模的成熟强度更高(导致成熟时的长度较短)。
更新日期:2021-04-01
down
wechat
bug