Abstract

Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election violence is particularly intense after narrow victories by incumbents. Using a density test, the study shows that incumbents were substantially more likely to win narrow victories than their challengers, a pattern consistent with electoral manipulation. There is no evidence that the increase in post-election violence is related to the incumbents’ political platform or their performance in past elections. These results provide support for the notion that post-election violence is triggered by election fraud or by the failure of democratic ways of removing unpopular incumbents from office.

中文翻译：

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狭In的胜利与选举后的冲突：来自菲律宾的证据

摘要

选举后的暴力是冲突的一种常见形式，但其潜在机制尚未得到很好的理解。利用2007年菲律宾市长选举的数据，本文提供了证据，表明在现任议员取得微弱胜利之后，选举后的暴力行为尤其激烈。使用密度测试，研究表明，现任者比挑战者更有可能赢得狭窄的胜利，这与选举操纵相一致。没有证据表明选举后暴力的增加与在任者的政治纲领或其在上次选举中的表现有关。这些结果为以下观念提供了支持：大选后的暴力行为是由选举舞弊或民主方式罢免了不受欢迎的现任总统而引发的。