Do large franchise extensions bring about dramatic electoral changes? Electoral reforms in 1918 nearly tripled the number of people eligible to vote in Ireland. Following the reforms—the largest franchise extension in U.K. history—the previously obscure Sinn Féin party secured 73 of Ireland’s 105 seats, an outcome that precipitated a guerrilla war and ultimately independence from the United Kingdom. However, our analysis finds little evidence that the franchise reforms benefited Sinn Féin. New female electors appear less likely to have supported Sinn Féin while new male electors were no more likely to vote for Sinn Féin than the existing electorate. Women also appear less likely to have cast a vote at all. Economic and social factors did matter when it came to voting, however, as did public opinion in relation to armed rebellion. These results remind us that dramatic political changes, such as those that took place in Ireland 1918, do not require dramatic changes in political participation. Sinn Féin’s electoral success was more likely driven by a change of heart on behalf of the Irish electorate, rather than a change in its composition.

中文翻译：

---

人民的代表：1918 年爱尔兰的特许经营权扩展和“新芬党选举”

大规模的特许权延长会带来戏剧性的选举变化吗？1918 年的选举改革使爱尔兰有资格投票的人数几乎增加了两倍。改革之后——英国历史上最大的选举权延长——以前默默无闻的新芬党获得了爱尔兰 105 个席位中的 73 个席位，这一结果引发了一场游击战并最终从英国独立。然而，我们的分析发现几乎没有证据表明特许经营权改革有利于新芬党。新女性选民似乎不太可能支持新芬党，而新男性选民投票给新芬党的可能性并不高于现有选民。女性似乎也不太可能投票。然而，在投票方面，经济和社会因素确实很重要，与武装叛乱有关的公众舆论也很重要。这些结果提醒我们，戏剧性的政治变化，例如 1918 年发生在爱尔兰的那些变化，并不需要政治参与的戏剧性变化。新芬党的选举成功更有可能是代表爱尔兰选民改变了主意，而不是其组成发生了变化。